BTC’s Path to New ATH Is Full of Obstacles but Whales’ Activity Brings Hope: Bitcoin Price Analysis
Following a modest bullish rebound from the significant support levels at $59K and the 100-day moving average, bitcoin has approached a critical resistance at $72K.
The price action at this key level likely sheds light on the cryptocurrency’s next major move.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
A detailed analysis of the daily chart shows that the $72K-$74K price range has acted as a formidable resistance for bitcoin, halting several upward attempts in recent months. This range is characterized by a high level of supply, resulting in substantial selling pressure and making it a challenging barrier for BTC buyers to overcome.
Bitcoin buyers have been attempting to break through this significant resistance area for several weeks. A sudden breach above this critical juncture could trigger a notable upward movement due to a significant short-squeeze event, potentially leading to a new all-time high.
On the other hand, this pivotal juncture could also act as a barrier, leading to a period of sideways consolidation and minor retracements. In this scenario, the 100-day moving average at $64.7K will serve as a crucial support level in the mid-term.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart analysis shows that after a decisive break above the $65K mark, buying pressure increased, driving bitcoin’s price up to the $72K level. This price range aligns with the upper boundary of a multi-month descending wedge, suggesting significant supply presence.
However, the increased selling pressure of around $72K has led to a noticeable downtrend, resulting in muted price action. Currently, the asset has formed a head and shoulders pattern near the upper boundary, with sellers attempting to push it below the neckline (green trendline). If successful, this could signal a more sustained bearish movement, targeting the critical $65K support region.
For now, the price remains confined within a tight range, bounded by the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern and the crucial resistance of the wedge’s upper boundary. An impending breakout from this range will likely determine bitcoin’s next trajectory.
On-Chain Analysis
By Shayan
Profitability is a crucial aspect of market psychology, especially concerning influential participants like whales. Examining these players’ profitability provides valuable insights into market sentiment and conditions. The provided chart illustrates the realized price metric for both new and old whale cohorts, reflecting the proportion of BTC supply in profit.
As shown in the graph, the realized price of old whales has consistently acted as a significant support level for bitcoin throughout the main market cycles. Conversely, the realized price of new whales has also emerged as a crucial support during the recent bullish trend towards the all-time high (ATH) of $74K.
Following a rejection from the $74K mark and during the subsequent consolidation correction phase, the realized price of new whales continued to support bitcoin, contributing to a robust price surge. Consequently, the realized price of new whales has become a key reference point for BTC in the short term, potentially bolstering the price and mitigating downward pressures.
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